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Russia-China Gas Deal Faces Setbacks; Turkmenistan Poised to Benefit

The Russia-China gas deal has hit setbacks as China reconsiders the power of the Siberia 2 pipeline. Turkmenistan emerges as a key beneficiary, surpassing Russia in gas exports to China and strengthening ties.

Despite their strategic partnership in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Russia and China appear to be at odds over energy deals. As Beijing seeks to secure additional natural gas supplies, Turkmenistan will likely benefit from this shifting dynamic.

Recently, plans for the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline, intended to deliver up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually from western Siberia to China via Mongolia, have encountered significant delays. The South China Morning Post reports that Mongolia’s decision to exclude funding for the pipeline from its five-year economic plan suggests that China may be reassessing the project.

Russia-China Gas Deal Faces Setbacks; Turkmenistan Poised to Benefit

Russia expected the Power of Siberia 2 to become a crucial revenue source as it grapples with the financial strain of its military operations in Ukraine. Despite China’s supportive stance towards Russia, which has helped mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, the suspension of this project indicates limits to Beijing’s commitment. This development contrasts the previously declared “unlimited” bilateral relations between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Amid these uncertainties, China is strengthening its ties with Turkmenistan. The Turkmenportal website reported that a group of Turkmen students participated in a summer training course at Petroleum University in Beijing. Regional expert Alexey Chigadayev, as cited by RFE/RL, suggests that a new pipeline connecting China and Turkmenistan would offer Beijing greater control over construction and operations. “Negotiating with Turkmenistan’s political leadership is also easier, given its highly centralized authority and simpler economic structure,” Chigadayev noted.

Regarding gas exports to China, Turkmenistan has surpassed Russia in revenue for 2024. According to an Uzbek news outlet, Spot. Turkmenistan exported $5.67 billion worth of gas to China between January and July, outpacing Russia’s $4.69 billion. During the same period, Kazakhstan also contributed over $730 million in gas exports to China.

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